Indonesia — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 56.5/100 · BBB · 81bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Indonesia trades 43bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 124bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 56.5 / 100 |
| Rank | 14 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BBB |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Baa2 · S&P BBB · Fitch BBB |
| Benchmark USD bond | INDON 4.65 32 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 81bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 5.86% |
| Duration | 5.1y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 60.8 |
| External | 27.4 |
| Macro | 58.9 |
| Institutions | 71.7 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 5.5 mo | 27.4 | World Bank | 2025 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 41.5% | 58.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 12.0% | 82.6 | World Bank/IMF QPSD | 2026 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 16.4% | 51.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -0.7% | 50.9 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 57.4 | 59.0 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 5.0% | 90.8 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 5.1% | 70.6 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $5,362 | 47.6 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 2.2pp | 66.3 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Indonesia moves from 61.9 in 2016 to 56.5 in 2026 (-5.5 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Indonesia's sovereign credit score?
Indonesia scores 56.5/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 14 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Indonesia USD bond does BondTerminal track?
INDON 4.65 32 (ISIN US455780DN36), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 81bps over Treasuries with a 5.86% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Indonesia trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Indonesia trades 43bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 124bps).