Indonesia — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 61.0/100 · BBB · 84 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Indonesia trades 25 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 109 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 61.0 / 100 |
| Rank | 13 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BBB |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Baa2 · S&P BBB · Fitch BBB |
| Benchmark USD bond | INDON 3.55 32 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 84 bps |
| Yield to worst | 4.99% |
| Duration | 5.1y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 55.9 |
| External | 59.5 |
| Macro | 76.6 |
| Institutions | 56.3 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | -1.1% | 50.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 5.7 mo | 66.7 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 41.5% | 77.1 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 16.4% | 41.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -0.7% | 47.9 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | -0.19 | 56.3 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 5.0% | 94.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $5,362 | 27.1 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 3.0% | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Indonesia moves from 60.8 in 2016 to 61.0 in 2026 (+0.3 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Indonesia's sovereign credit score?
Indonesia scores 61.0/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 13 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Indonesia USD bond does BondTerminal track?
INDON 3.55 32 (ISIN US455780DJ24), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 84 bps over Treasuries with a 4.99% yield to worst.
Is Indonesia trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Indonesia trades 25 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 109 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Indonesia bond directory — every Indonesia USD bond BondTerminal tracks.
- Indonesia vs Philippines — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Indonesia vs China — fundamentals and spreads head to head.