BondTerminal Sovereign Signal
Public sovereign fundamentals, scored 0-100, set against each country’s near-5-year USD bond spread.
How to read the Sovereign Signal
The BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score (BT-SFS) compresses ten public metrics — debt, interest burden, primary balance, FX debt, reserves, income, growth, growth volatility, governance, and the inflation track record — into a 0-100 score built from IMF, World Bank, and WGI data.
Each score is plotted against the country’s near-5-year USD bond spread solved by BondTerminal’s pricing engine. Countries above the fit trade wide of their fundamentals; countries below trade tight.
Sovereign fundamentals scores and USD bond spreads (51 countries)
| Rank | Country | Rating (Moody's/S&P/Fitch) | BT-SFS | Spread | YTW (S.A.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saudi Arabia | Aa3/A+/A+ | 81.6 | 75bps | 5.83% |
| 2 | Latvia | A3/A/A- | 77.5 | 87bps | 6.03% |
| 3 | United Arab Emirates | Aa2/AA/AA- | 72.1 | 60bps | 5.62% |
| 4 | Bulgaria | Baa1/BBB+/BBB+ | 70.1 | 102bps | 6.28% |
| 5 | Kazakhstan | Baa1/BBB/BBB | 66.9 | 68bps | 5.74% |
| 6 | Oman | Baa3/BBB-/BBB- | 66.7 | 89bps | 5.97% |
| 7 | China | A1/A+/A | 64.6 | -36bps | 4.66% |
| 8 | Peru | Baa1/BBB-/BBB | 63.9 | 91bps | 6.05% |
| 9 | Uruguay | Baa1/BBB+/BBB | 62.8 | 74bps | 5.87% |
| 10 | Chile | A2/A/A- | 62.6 | 69bps | 5.72% |
| 11 | Poland | A2/A-/A- | 61.8 | 73bps | 5.81% |
| 12 | Azerbaijan | Baa3/NR/BBB- | 61.2 | 80bps | 5.81% |
| 13 | Serbia | Ba2/BBB-/BB+ | 56.9 | 138bps | 6.50% |
| 14 | Indonesia | Baa2/BBB/BBB | 56.5 | 79bps | 5.86% |
| 15 | Guatemala | Ba1/BB+/BB+ | 55.1 | 133bps | 6.52% |
| 16 | Paraguay | Baa3/BBB-/BB+ | 54.4 | 120bps | 6.76% |
| 17 | Costa Rica | Ba2/BB/BB | 54.3 | 117bps | 6.27% |
| 18 | Jordan | Ba3/BB-/BB- | 53.5 | 152bps | 6.46% |
| 19 | Turkiye | Ba3/BB-/BB- | 52.4 | 245bps | 7.55% |
| 20 | Brazil | Ba1/BB/BB | 52.2 | 127bps | 6.36% |
| 21 | Philippines | Baa2/BBB+/BBB | 52.2 | 70bps | 5.73% |
| 22 | Romania | Baa3/BBB-/BBB- | 52.2 | 174bps | 6.83% |
| 23 | Panama | Baa3/BBB-/BB+ | 51.9 | 95bps | 6.03% |
| 24 | Morocco | Ba1/BBB-/BB+ | 51.6 | 118bps | 6.27% |
| 25 | Colombia | Baa3/BB/BB | 50.3 | 219bps | 7.28% |
| 26 | Cote d'Ivoire | Ba2/BB/BB | 50.2 | 208bps | 7.19% |
| 27 | Hungary | Baa2/BBB-/BBB | 49.6 | 94bps | 6.01% |
| 28 | Benin | Ba3/BB-/B+ | 49.4 | 269bps | 7.94% |
| 29 | South Africa | Ba2/BB/BB | 48.8 | 123bps | 6.28% |
| 30 | Trinidad and Tobago | Ba2/BBB-/NR | 48.4 | 180bps | 7.01% |
| 31 | Mexico | Baa3/BBB/BBB- | 46.2 | 120bps | 6.26% |
| 32 | Dominican Republic | Ba2/BB/BB- | 44.0 | 162bps | 6.69% |
| 33 | Bahrain | B2/B/B | 43.7 | 371bps | 8.78% |
| 34 | Jamaica | Ba3/BB/BB- | 42.5 | 109bps | 6.39% |
| 35 | Senegal | Caa2/CC/NR | 41.1 | 1676bps | 21.81% |
| 36 | Nigeria | B3/B-/B | 38.5 | 289bps | 8.02% |
| 37 | Egypt | Caa1/B/B | 38.4 | 336bps | 8.49% |
| 38 | Kenya | B3/B/B- | 36.7 | 411bps | 9.23% |
| 39 | Lebanon | C/D/NR | 31.5 | In default · price 27.22 · 19% of claim | — |
| 40 | Angola | B3/B-/B- | 31.3 | 458bps | 9.68% |
| 41 | Pakistan | B3/B/B- | 30.3 | 327bps | 8.31% |
| 42 | Ghana | Caa1/B-/B | 28.7 | 305bps | 8.13% |
| 43 | Ecuador | Caa1/B/B- | 28.2 | 521bps | 10.31% |
| 44 | Argentina | B3/B-/B- | 27.8 | 617bps | 11.27% |
| 45 | Bolivia | Caa2/CCC+/CCC | 23.5 | 519bps | 10.18% |
| 46 | El Salvador | B3/B-/B- | 23.1 | 264bps | 7.56% |
| 47 | Sri Lanka | Caa1/CCC+/CCC+ | 19.9 | 409bps | 9.27% |
| 48 | Zambia | Caa2/CCC+/B- | 19.6 | 248bps | 7.42% |
| 49 | Suriname | Caa1/CCC+/NR | 14.9 | 292bps | 8.13% |
| 50 | Ukraine | Ca/CCC+/D | 14.7 | 975bps | 14.89% |
| 51 | Venezuela | NR | 11.3 | In default · price 57.68 · 28% of claim | — |
Methodology
The full scoring methodology is public: the BT-SFS methodology paper documents every metric, weight, and transformation, and the validation appendix tests the score against ratings, defaults, and market spreads.
For Argentina-centric sovereign work, see the Argentina Sovereign Monitor; for bond-level detail, open any country page or the global comparables screen.