BondTerminal Sovereign Signal
Public sovereign fundamentals, scored 0-100, set against each country’s near-5-year USD bond spread.
How to read the Sovereign Signal
The BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score (BT-SFS) compresses nine public metrics — debt, interest burden, primary balance, reserves, current account, inflation, growth, income, and institutions — into a 0-100 score built only from IMF, World Bank, and WGI data.
Each score is plotted against the country’s near-5-year USD bond spread solved by BondTerminal’s pricing engine. Countries above the fit trade wide of their fundamentals; countries below trade tight.
Sovereign fundamentals scores and USD bond spreads (51 countries)
| Rank | Country | Rating | BT-SFS score | Spread | YTW |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United Arab Emirates | AA | 86.9 | 29 bps | 4.44% |
| 2 | Oman | BBB− | 80.0 | 79 bps | 4.94% |
| 3 | Saudi Arabia | A+ | 77.5 | 75 bps | 4.90% |
| 4 | Uruguay | BBB+ | 72.4 | 80 bps | 4.95% |
| 5 | Chile | A | 68.9 | 65 bps | 4.80% |
| 6 | Kazakhstan | BBB | 68.5 | 76 bps | 4.91% |
| 7 | Bulgaria | BBB+ | 68.0 | 117 bps | 5.32% |
| 8 | China | A+ | 67.7 | -32 bps | 3.83% |
| 9 | Poland | A− | 66.4 | 63 bps | 4.78% |
| 10 | Azerbaijan | BBB− | 65.0 | 79 bps | 4.94% |
| 11 | Peru | BBB | 65.0 | 98 bps | 5.13% |
| 12 | Costa Rica | BB | 61.0 | 118 bps | 5.33% |
| 13 | Indonesia | BBB | 61.0 | 84 bps | 4.99% |
| 14 | Latvia | A− | 60.1 | 88 bps | 5.03% |
| 15 | Serbia | BB+ | 57.5 | 138 bps | 5.53% |
| 16 | Trinidad and Tobago | BB+ | 56.8 | 194 bps | 6.09% |
| 17 | Jordan | BB− | 56.5 | 136 bps | 5.51% |
| 18 | Guatemala | BB+ | 55.5 | 153 bps | 5.68% |
| 19 | Hungary | BBB | 55.5 | 99 bps | 5.14% |
| 20 | Dominican Republic | BB | 53.9 | 165 bps | 5.80% |
| 21 | South Africa | BB | 53.6 | 123 bps | 5.38% |
| 22 | Jamaica | BB− | 53.4 | 146 bps | 5.61% |
| 23 | Romania | BBB− | 52.8 | 148 bps | 5.63% |
| 24 | Paraguay | BBB− | 52.6 | 174 bps | 5.89% |
| 25 | Morocco | BB+ | 52.2 | 126 bps | 5.41% |
| 26 | Colombia | BB+ | 52.1 | 184 bps | 5.99% |
| 27 | Panama | BBB− | 51.6 | 111 bps | 5.26% |
| 28 | Philippines | BBB | 51.2 | 45 bps | 4.60% |
| 29 | Brazil | BB | 48.4 | 157 bps | 5.72% |
| 30 | Turkiye | BB− | 46.9 | 258 bps | 6.73% |
| 31 | Bahrain | B | 45.5 | 269 bps | 6.84% |
| 32 | Ghana | B− | 45.0 | 303 bps | 7.18% |
| 33 | Argentina | B− | 42.5 | 468 bps | 8.83% |
| 34 | Nigeria | B− | 42.5 | 307 bps | 7.22% |
| 35 | Angola | B− | 42.4 | 494 bps | 9.09% |
| 36 | Mexico | BBB− | 40.2 | 133 bps | 5.48% |
| 37 | El Salvador | B− | 39.0 | 208 bps | 6.23% |
| 38 | Ecuador | B− | 38.6 | 441 bps | 8.56% |
| 39 | Pakistan | B− | 34.3 | 318 bps | 7.33% |
| 40 | Egypt | B− | 33.5 | 323 bps | 7.38% |
| 41 | Kenya | B− | 33.5 | 364 bps | 7.79% |
| 42 | Sri Lanka | CCC+ | 32.1 | — | — |
| 43 | Suriname | CCC+ | 31.5 | 281 bps | 7.27% |
| 44 | Zambia | CCC+ | 25.0 | 230 bps | 6.45% |
| 45 | Bolivia | CCC | 20.9 | 497 bps | 9.12% |
| 46 | Ukraine | CC | 11.5 | 807 bps | 12.22% |
| — | Cote d'Ivoire | BB | 51.5 | 213 bps | 6.28% |
| — | Benin | B+ | 49.8 | 293 bps | 7.08% |
| — | Senegal | CCC+ | 41.4 | 1605 bps | 20.20% |
| — | Lebanon | D | 33.1 | — | — |
| — | Venezuela | NR | 18.5 | — | — |
Methodology
The full scoring methodology is public: the BT-SFS methodology paper documents every metric, weight, and transformation, and the validation appendix tests the score against ratings, defaults, and market spreads.
For Argentina-centric sovereign work, see the Argentina Sovereign Monitor; for bond-level detail, open any country page or the global comparables screen.