BondTerminal Sovereign Signal
Public sovereign fundamentals, scored 0-100, set against each country’s near-5-year USD bond spread.
How to read the Sovereign Signal
The BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score (BT-SFS) compresses nine public metrics — debt, interest burden, primary balance, reserves, current account, inflation, growth, income, and institutions — into a 0-100 score built only from IMF, World Bank, and WGI data.
Each score is plotted against the country’s near-5-year USD bond spread solved by BondTerminal’s pricing engine. Countries above the fit trade wide of their fundamentals; countries below trade tight.
Sovereign fundamentals scores and USD bond spreads (51 countries)
| Rank | Country | Rating | BT-SFS score | Spread | YTW |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United Arab Emirates | AA | 86.9 | 23bps | 4.98% |
| 2 | Oman | BBB− | 80.0 | 66bps | 5.46% |
| 3 | Saudi Arabia | A+ | 77.5 | 63bps | 5.40% |
| 4 | Uruguay | BBB+ | 72.4 | 70bps | 5.55% |
| 5 | Chile | A | 68.9 | 61bps | 5.38% |
| 6 | Kazakhstan | BBB | 68.5 | 53bps | 5.32% |
| 7 | Bulgaria | BBB+ | 68.0 | 81bps | 5.78% |
| 8 | China | A+ | 67.7 | -36bps | 4.40% |
| 9 | Poland | A− | 66.4 | 51bps | 5.30% |
| 10 | Azerbaijan | BBB− | 65.0 | 48bps | 5.23% |
| 11 | Peru | BBB | 65.0 | 85bps | 5.70% |
| 12 | Costa Rica | BB | 61.0 | 100bps | 5.81% |
| 13 | Indonesia | BBB | 61.0 | 66bps | 5.44% |
| 14 | Latvia | A− | 60.1 | 68bps | 5.56% |
| 15 | Serbia | BB+ | 57.5 | 123bps | 6.07% |
| 16 | Trinidad and Tobago | BB+ | 56.8 | 156bps | 6.49% |
| 17 | Jordan | BB− | 56.5 | 145bps | 6.13% |
| 18 | Guatemala | BB+ | 55.5 | 123bps | 6.13% |
| 19 | Hungary | BBB | 55.5 | 67bps | 5.47% |
| 20 | Dominican Republic | BB | 53.9 | 144bps | 6.24% |
| 21 | South Africa | BB | 53.6 | 87bps | 5.65% |
| 22 | Jamaica | BB− | 53.4 | 100bps | 6.02% |
| 23 | Romania | BBB− | 52.8 | 139bps | 6.16% |
| 24 | Paraguay | BBB− | 52.6 | 120bps | 6.50% |
| 25 | Morocco | BB+ | 52.2 | 100bps | 5.84% |
| 26 | Colombia | BB+ | 52.1 | 189bps | 6.67% |
| 27 | Panama | BBB− | 51.6 | 109bps | 5.88% |
| 28 | Philippines | BBB | 51.2 | 40bps | 5.13% |
| 29 | Brazil | BB | 48.4 | 131bps | 6.13% |
| 30 | Turkiye | BB− | 46.9 | 239bps | 7.20% |
| 31 | Bahrain | B | 45.5 | 302bps | 7.82% |
| 32 | Ghana | B− | 45.0 | 254bps | 7.35% |
| 33 | Argentina | B− | 42.5 | 543bps | 10.25% |
| 34 | Nigeria | B− | 42.5 | 238bps | 7.22% |
| 35 | Angola | B− | 42.4 | 381bps | 8.63% |
| 36 | Mexico | BBB− | 40.2 | 114bps | 5.92% |
| 37 | El Salvador | B− | 39.0 | 243bps | 7.09% |
| 38 | Ecuador | B− | 38.6 | 455bps | 9.37% |
| 39 | Pakistan | B− | 34.3 | 298bps | 7.70% |
| 40 | Egypt | B− | 33.5 | 292bps | 7.74% |
| 41 | Kenya | B− | 33.5 | 348bps | 8.32% |
| 42 | Lebanon | D | 33.1 | 5857bps | 63.23% |
| 43 | Sri Lanka | CCC+ | 32.1 | 394bps | 8.83% |
| 44 | Suriname | CCC+ | 31.5 | 255bps | 7.47% |
| 45 | Zambia | CCC+ | 25.0 | 203bps | 6.72% |
| 46 | Bolivia | CCC | 20.9 | 511bps | 9.84% |
| 47 | Venezuela | NR | 18.5 | 2903bps | 33.72% |
| 48 | Ukraine | CC | 11.5 | 825bps | 13.11% |
| — | Cote d'Ivoire | BB | 51.5 | 174bps | 6.57% |
| — | Benin | BB− | 49.8 | 240bps | 7.37% |
| — | Senegal | CCC− | 41.4 | 1753bps | 22.31% |
Methodology
The full scoring methodology is public: the BT-SFS methodology paper documents every metric, weight, and transformation, and the validation appendix tests the score against ratings, defaults, and market spreads.
For Argentina-centric sovereign work, see the Argentina Sovereign Monitor; for bond-level detail, open any country page or the global comparables screen.