Mexico — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 40.2/100 · BBB− · 133 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Mexico trades 94 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 227 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 40.2 / 100 |
| Rank | 36 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BBB− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Baa3 · S&P BBB · Fitch BBB- |
| Benchmark USD bond | MEX 4.75 32 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 133 bps |
| Yield to worst | 5.48% |
| Duration | 5.0y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 47.6 |
| External | 42.6 |
| Macro | 63.1 |
| Institutions | 10.4 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | -0.4% | 66.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 3.5 mo | 24.4 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 62.7% | 45.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 23.7% | 18.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | 1.6% | 83.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | -0.77 | 10.4 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 1.6% | 12.5 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $15,779 | 64.6 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 3.9% | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Mexico moves from 46.5 in 2016 to 40.2 in 2026 (-6.3 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Mexico's sovereign credit score?
Mexico scores 40.2/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 36 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Mexico USD bond does BondTerminal track?
MEX 4.75 32 (ISIN US91087BAK61), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 133 bps over Treasuries with a 5.48% yield to worst.
Is Mexico trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Mexico trades 94 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 227 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Mexico bond directory — every Mexico USD bond BondTerminal tracks.
- Mexico vs Brazil — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Mexico vs Colombia — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Mexico vs Peru — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- El Salvador — regional peer, BT-SFS 39.0 · 208 bps.
- Ecuador — regional peer, BT-SFS 38.6 · 441 bps.
- Argentina — regional peer, BT-SFS 42.5 · 468 bps.