Mexico — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 46.2/100 · BBB− · 123bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Mexico trades 57bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 180bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 46.2 / 100 |
| Rank | 31 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BBB− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Baa3 · S&P BBB · Fitch BBB- |
| Benchmark USD bond | MEX 5.85 32 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 123bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 6.26% |
| Duration | 4.7y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 52.4 |
| External | 12.7 |
| Macro | 55.0 |
| Institutions | 56.9 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 3.7 mo | 12.7 | World Bank | 2025 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 62.7% | 28.9 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 10.2% | 86.1 | World Bank/IMF QPSD | 2026 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 23.7% | 30.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | 1.6% | 72.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 50.1 | 34.2 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 5.0% | 90.9 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 1.5% | 21.0 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $15,779 | 85.5 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 3.6pp | 37.0 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Mexico moves from 50.1 in 2016 to 46.2 in 2026 (-4.0 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Mexico's sovereign credit score?
Mexico scores 46.2/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 31 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Mexico USD bond does BondTerminal track?
MEX 5.85 32 (ISIN US91087BBE92), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 123bps over Treasuries with a 6.26% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Mexico trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Mexico trades 57bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 180bps).