El Salvador — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 23.1/100 · B− · 268bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
El Salvador trades 151bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 419bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 23.1 / 100 |
| Rank | 46 of 51 |
| Composite rating | B− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's B3 · S&P B- · Fitch B- |
| Benchmark USD bond | ELSALV 9.25 30 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 268bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 7.56% |
| Duration | 2.8y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 30.7 |
| External | 1.9 |
| Macro | 42.0 |
| Institutions | 61.0 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 2.4 mo | 1.9 | World Bank | 2025 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 84.5% | 0.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 84.5% | 0.0 | Dollarised | 2026 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 17.6% | 48.2 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | 2.9% | 84.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 50.3 | 35.0 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 2.3% | 100.0 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 3.3% | 46.8 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $6,196 | 52.6 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 4.5pp | 24.8 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, El Salvador moves from 39.2 in 2016 to 23.1 in 2026 (-16.1 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
2017: payment_default (high) — S&P press release via BNamericas, El Salvador ratings cut to 'SD' (21 Apr 2017).
2023: domestic_distressed_exchange (other) — S&P Global Ratings rating action (9 May 2023).
Frequently asked questions
What is El Salvador's sovereign credit score?
El Salvador scores 23.1/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 46 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which El Salvador USD bond does BondTerminal track?
ELSALV 9.25 30 (ISIN USP01012CF16), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 268bps over Treasuries with a 7.56% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is El Salvador trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
El Salvador trades 151bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 419bps).