El Salvador — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 39.0/100 · B− · 208 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
El Salvador trades 29 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 237 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 39.0 / 100 |
| Rank | 37 of 51 |
| Composite rating | B− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's B3 · S&P B- · Fitch B- |
| Benchmark USD bond | ELSALV 9.25 30 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 208 bps |
| Yield to worst | 6.23% |
| Duration | 2.4y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 49.2 |
| External | 18.0 |
| Macro | 64.7 |
| Institutions | 27.1 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | -3.3% | 27.1 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 2.1 mo | 11.1 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 84.5% | 20.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 17.6% | 37.5 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | 2.9% | 95.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | -0.49 | 27.1 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 3.3% | 51.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $6,196 | 31.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 2.5% | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, El Salvador moves from 38.1 in 2016 to 39.0 in 2026 (+0.9 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is El Salvador's sovereign credit score?
El Salvador scores 39.0/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 37 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which El Salvador USD bond does BondTerminal track?
ELSALV 9.25 30 (ISIN USP01012CF16), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 208 bps over Treasuries with a 6.23% yield to worst.
Is El Salvador trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
El Salvador trades 29 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 237 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- El Salvador vs Ecuador — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Mexico — regional peer, BT-SFS 40.2 · 133 bps.
- Argentina — regional peer, BT-SFS 42.5 · 468 bps.
- Suriname — regional peer, BT-SFS 31.5 · 305 bps.