Argentina — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 42.5/100 · B− · 468 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Argentina trades 259 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 209 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 42.5 / 100 |
| Rank | 33 of 51 |
| Composite rating | B− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Caa1 · S&P B- · Fitch B- |
| Benchmark USD bond | ARGENT 4.125 35 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 468 bps |
| Yield to worst | 8.83% |
| Duration | 5.3y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 65.7 |
| External | 41.2 |
| Macro | 43.1 |
| Institutions | 60.4 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | -0.8% | 60.4 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 3.6 mo | 26.7 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 70.4% | 33.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 4.5% | 81.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | 1.9% | 85.4 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | -0.13 | 60.4 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 3.5% | 57.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $14,357 | 60.4 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 30.4% | 19.6 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Argentina moves from 36.3 in 2016 to 42.5 in 2026 (+6.2 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
2014: payment_default (high) — IMF Argentina ex-post evaluation.
2020: external_restructuring (high) — IMF Argentina ex-post evaluation.
Frequently asked questions
What is Argentina's sovereign credit score?
Argentina scores 42.5/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 33 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Argentina USD bond does BondTerminal track?
ARGENT 4.125 35 (ISIN US040114HT09), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 468 bps over Treasuries with a 8.83% yield to worst.
Is Argentina trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Argentina trades 259 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 209 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Argentina bond directory — every Argentina USD bond BondTerminal tracks.
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- Mexico — regional peer, BT-SFS 40.2 · 133 bps.
- El Salvador — regional peer, BT-SFS 39.0 · 208 bps.
- Panama — regional peer, BT-SFS 51.6 · 116 bps.