Argentina — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 27.8/100 · B− · 616bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Argentina trades 264bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 352bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 27.8 / 100 |
| Rank | 44 of 51 |
| Composite rating | B− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's B3 · S&P B- · Fitch B- |
| Benchmark USD bond | ARGENT 4.125 35 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 616bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 11.24% |
| Duration | 5.0y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 51.1 |
| External | 15.3 |
| Macro | 53.6 |
| Institutions | 32.4 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 4.1 mo | 15.3 | World Bank | 2025 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 70.4% | 18.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 37.9% | 35.2 | World Bank/IMF QPSD | 2026 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 4.5% | 87.1 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | 1.9% | 75.4 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 55.9 | 54.0 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 42.9% | 0.0 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 4.0% | 55.5 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $14,357 | 82.2 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 5.4pp | 14.3 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Argentina moves from 32.9 in 2016 to 27.8 in 2026 (-5.0 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
2014: payment_default (high) — Jones Day, Sovereign Debt Update (Jun 2016) [secondary].
2019: preemptive_reprofiling (other) — S&P Global Ratings research update, 30 Aug 2019.
2020: external_restructuring (high) — Argentina Ministry of Economy, results of foreign-law exchange (31 Aug 2020).
2023: domestic_distressed_exchange (other) — S&P Global Ratings, 2023 Annual Global Sovereign Default and Rating Transition Study (27 Mar 2024).
2024: domestic_distressed_exchange (other) — Buenos Aires Times, Argentina downgraded to selective default by S&P on debt swap (13 Mar 2024) [secondary].
2025: domestic_distressed_exchange (other) — S&P Global Ratings research update, 17 Dec 2025.