Panama — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 51.6/100 · BBB− · 111 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Panama trades 40 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 151 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 51.6 / 100 |
| Rank | 27 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BBB− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Baa3 · S&P BBB- · Fitch BB+ |
| Benchmark USD bond | PANAMA 2.252 32 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 111 bps |
| Yield to worst | 5.26% |
| Duration | 5.7y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 51.1 |
| External | 23.9 |
| Macro | 83.8 |
| Institutions | 54.2 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | -1.5% | 43.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 2.1 mo | 8.9 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 57.7% | 58.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 16.7% | 39.6 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -0.4% | 56.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | -0.19 | 54.2 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 3.8% | 66.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $20,564 | 79.2 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 1.4% | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Panama moves from 53.9 in 2016 to 51.6 in 2026 (-2.3 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Panama's sovereign credit score?
Panama scores 51.6/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 27 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Panama USD bond does BondTerminal track?
PANAMA 2.252 32 (ISIN US698299BN37), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 111 bps over Treasuries with a 5.26% yield to worst.
Is Panama trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Panama trades 40 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 151 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Panama bond directory — every Panama USD bond BondTerminal tracks.
- Panama vs Colombia — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Brazil — regional peer, BT-SFS 48.4 · 157 bps.
- Paraguay — regional peer, BT-SFS 52.6 · 174 bps.
- Jamaica — regional peer, BT-SFS 53.4 · 146 bps.