Panama — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 51.9/100 · BBB− · 98bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Panama trades 48bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 146bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 51.9 / 100 |
| Rank | 23 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BBB− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Baa3 · S&P BBB- · Fitch BB+ |
| Benchmark USD bond | PANAMA 2.252 32 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 98bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 6.03% |
| Duration | 5.4y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 35.1 |
| External | — |
| Macro | 55.3 |
| Institutions | 70.7 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | — | — | missing | |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 57.7% | 35.9 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 57.7% | 0.0 | Dollarised | 2026 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 16.7% | 50.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -0.4% | 53.6 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 55.1 | 51.1 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 1.9% | 100.0 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 4.2% | 59.1 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $20,564 | 94.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 8.3pp | 0.0 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Panama moves from 70.4 in 2016 to 51.9 in 2026 (-18.5 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Panama's sovereign credit score?
Panama scores 51.9/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 23 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Panama USD bond does BondTerminal track?
PANAMA 2.252 32 (ISIN US698299BN37), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 98bps over Treasuries with a 6.03% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Panama trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Panama trades 48bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 146bps).