Jamaica — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 42.5/100 · BB− · 111bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Jamaica trades 95bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 206bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 42.5 / 100 |
| Rank | 34 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BB− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Ba3 · S&P BB · Fitch BB- |
| Benchmark USD bond | JAMAN 8 39 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 111bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 6.39% |
| Duration | 7.6y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 38.5 |
| External | 35.5 |
| Macro | 41.1 |
| Institutions | 66.2 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 6.5 mo | 35.5 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 65.8% | 24.5 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 41.6% | 28.4 | IMF staff report / Eurostat | 2023–2026 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 19.4% | 42.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | 0.6% | 63.1 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 56.0 | 54.1 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 7.0% | 84.3 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 0.6% | 9.1 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $8,356 | 63.1 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 3.9pp | 33.0 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Jamaica moves from 32.1 in 2016 to 42.5 in 2026 (+10.4 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
2010: domestic_distressed_exchange (other) — Bank of Jamaica, Policy lessons from postmortems of Jamaica's two recent debt exchanges (2013).
2013: domestic_distressed_exchange (other) — Bank of Jamaica, Policy lessons from postmortems of Jamaica's two recent debt exchanges (2013).
Frequently asked questions
What is Jamaica's sovereign credit score?
Jamaica scores 42.5/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 34 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Jamaica USD bond does BondTerminal track?
JAMAN 8 39 (ISIN US470160AV46), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 111bps over Treasuries with a 6.39% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Jamaica trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Jamaica trades 95bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 206bps).