Paraguay — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 54.4/100 · BBB− · 121bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Paraguay trades 12bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 133bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 54.4 / 100 |
| Rank | 16 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BBB− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Baa3 · S&P BBB- · Fitch BB+ |
| Benchmark USD bond | PARGUY 6.1 44 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 121bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 6.76% |
| Duration | 10.4y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 60.3 |
| External | 27.8 |
| Macro | 64.0 |
| Institutions | 59.4 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 5.6 mo | 27.8 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 37.8% | 64.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 33.9% | 42.5 | World Bank/IMF QPSD | 2026 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 9.4% | 72.6 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | 0.4% | 60.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 51.3 | 38.5 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 5.1% | 90.6 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 4.6% | 63.7 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $9,372 | 67.2 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 2.4pp | 59.9 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Paraguay moves from 55.7 in 2016 to 54.4 in 2026 (-1.3 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Paraguay's sovereign credit score?
Paraguay scores 54.4/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 16 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Paraguay USD bond does BondTerminal track?
PARGUY 6.1 44 (ISIN USP75744AB11), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 121bps over Treasuries with a 6.76% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Paraguay trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Paraguay trades 12bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 133bps).