Paraguay — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 52.6/100 · BBB− · 174 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Paraguay trades 28 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 146 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 52.6 / 100 |
| Rank | 24 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BBB− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Baa3 · S&P BBB- · Fitch BB+ |
| Benchmark USD bond | PARGUY 6.1 44 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 174 bps |
| Yield to worst | 5.89% |
| Duration | 10.7y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 70.2 |
| External | 48.9 |
| Macro | 78.4 |
| Institutions | 14.6 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | -3.0% | 31.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 5.6 mo | 62.2 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 37.8% | 79.2 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 9.4% | 62.5 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | 0.4% | 68.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | -0.65 | 14.6 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 4.2% | 78.1 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $9,372 | 50.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 3.3% | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Paraguay moves from 64.4 in 2016 to 52.6 in 2026 (-11.8 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Paraguay's sovereign credit score?
Paraguay scores 52.6/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 24 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Paraguay USD bond does BondTerminal track?
PARGUY 6.1 44 (ISIN USP75744AB11), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 174 bps over Treasuries with a 5.89% yield to worst.
Is Paraguay trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Paraguay trades 28 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 146 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Paraguay vs Uruguay — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Jamaica — regional peer, BT-SFS 53.4 · 146 bps.
- Colombia — regional peer, BT-SFS 52.1 · 184 bps.
- Panama — regional peer, BT-SFS 51.6 · 116 bps.