Guatemala — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 55.1/100 · BB+ · 135bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Guatemala trades 5bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 130bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 55.1 / 100 |
| Rank | 15 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BB+ |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Ba1 · S&P BB+ · Fitch BB+ |
| Benchmark USD bond | GUATEM 6.6 36 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 135bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 6.52% |
| Duration | 6.4y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 69.1 |
| External | 43.1 |
| Macro | 58.6 |
| Institutions | 43.5 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 7.4 mo | 43.1 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 27.6% | 78.4 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 13.0% | 80.9 | World Bank/IMF QPSD | 2026 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 13.3% | 61.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -0.5% | 52.9 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 43.1 | 10.8 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 4.5% | 92.5 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 4.0% | 55.9 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $6,810 | 56.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 2.2pp | 64.0 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Guatemala moves from 53.6 in 2016 to 55.1 in 2026 (+1.6 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Guatemala's sovereign credit score?
Guatemala scores 55.1/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 15 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Guatemala USD bond does BondTerminal track?
GUATEM 6.6 36 (ISIN USP5015VAQ97), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 135bps over Treasuries with a 6.52% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Guatemala trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Guatemala trades 5bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 130bps).