Guatemala — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 55.5/100 · BB+ · 153 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Guatemala trades 21 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 132 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 55.5 / 100 |
| Rank | 18 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BB+ |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Ba1 · S&P BB+ · Fitch BB+ |
| Benchmark USD bond | GUATEM 6.6 36 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 153 bps |
| Yield to worst | 5.68% |
| Duration | 6.8y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 65.2 |
| External | 82.2 |
| Macro | 71.6 |
| Institutions | 4.2 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | 3.2% | 79.2 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 7.4 mo | 84.4 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 27.6% | 93.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 13.3% | 47.9 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -0.5% | 52.1 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | -0.94 | 4.2 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 3.9% | 69.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $6,810 | 35.4 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 2.6% | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Guatemala moves from 49.5 in 2016 to 55.5 in 2026 (+6.0 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Guatemala's sovereign credit score?
Guatemala scores 55.5/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 18 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Guatemala USD bond does BondTerminal track?
GUATEM 6.6 36 (ISIN USP5015VAQ97), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 153 bps over Treasuries with a 5.68% yield to worst.
Is Guatemala trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Guatemala trades 21 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 132 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Guatemala vs Costa Rica — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Trinidad and Tobago — regional peer, BT-SFS 56.8 · 194 bps.
- Dominican Republic — regional peer, BT-SFS 53.9 · 165 bps.
- Jamaica — regional peer, BT-SFS 53.4 · 146 bps.