Brazil — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 52.2/100 · BB · 129bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Brazil trades 15bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 144bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 52.2 / 100 |
| Rank | 20 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BB |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Ba1 · S&P BB · Fitch BB |
| Benchmark USD bond | BRAZIL 5.5 33 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 129bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 6.36% |
| Duration | 5.2y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 45.3 |
| External | 51.7 |
| Macro | 59.3 |
| Institutions | 55.4 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 8.4 mo | 51.7 | World Bank | 2025 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 96.5% | 0.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 4.4% | 96.5 | World Bank/IMF QPSD | 2026 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 18.1% | 46.9 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -0.5% | 52.9 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 49.8 | 33.2 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 5.7% | 88.6 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 2.1% | 29.3 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $12,313 | 76.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 2.6pp | 56.0 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Brazil moves from 51.8 in 2016 to 52.2 in 2026 (+0.4 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Brazil's sovereign credit score?
Brazil scores 52.2/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 20 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Brazil USD bond does BondTerminal track?
BRAZIL 5.5 33 (ISIN US105756CP36), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 129bps over Treasuries with a 6.36% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Brazil trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Brazil trades 15bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 144bps).