Brazil — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 48.4/100 · BB · 157 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Brazil trades 13 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 170 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 48.4 / 100 |
| Rank | 29 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BB |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Ba1 · S&P BB · Fitch BB |
| Benchmark USD bond | BRAZIL 5.5 33 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 157 bps |
| Yield to worst | 5.72% |
| Duration | 5.3y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 33.0 |
| External | 68.4 |
| Macro | 62.5 |
| Institutions | 35.4 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | -2.7% | 35.4 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 8.0 mo | 93.3 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 96.5% | 12.5 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 18.1% | 35.4 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -0.5% | 54.2 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | -0.36 | 35.4 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 1.9% | 18.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $12,313 | 56.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 4.0% | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Brazil moves from 49.8 in 2016 to 48.4 in 2026 (-1.5 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Brazil's sovereign credit score?
Brazil scores 48.4/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 29 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Brazil USD bond does BondTerminal track?
BRAZIL 5.5 33 (ISIN US105756CP36), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 157 bps over Treasuries with a 5.72% yield to worst.
Is Brazil trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Brazil trades 13 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 170 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Brazil bond directory — every Brazil USD bond BondTerminal tracks.
- Brazil vs Mexico — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Brazil vs South Africa — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Brazil vs Argentina — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Brazil vs Turkiye — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Panama — regional peer, BT-SFS 51.6 · 116 bps.
- Colombia — regional peer, BT-SFS 52.1 · 184 bps.
- Paraguay — regional peer, BT-SFS 52.6 · 174 bps.