Ecuador — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 38.6/100 · B− · 441 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Ecuador trades 201 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 240 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 38.6 / 100 |
| Rank | 38 of 51 |
| Composite rating | B− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Caa1 · S&P B- · Fitch B- |
| Benchmark USD bond | ECUA 6.9 35 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 441 bps |
| Yield to worst | 8.56% |
| Duration | 5.1y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 59.4 |
| External | 46.1 |
| Macro | 63.8 |
| Institutions | 16.7 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | 5.2% | 89.6 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 2.2 mo | 13.3 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 54.4% | 64.6 | IMF | 2025 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 3.2% | 85.4 | IMF | 2025 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -1.7% | 22.9 | IMF | 2025 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | -0.65 | 16.7 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 2.5% | 35.4 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $7,575 | 43.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 2.9% | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Ecuador moves from 40.9 in 2016 to 38.6 in 2026 (-2.3 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
2020: external_restructuring (high) — IMF Ecuador Article IV / EFF review.
Frequently asked questions
What is Ecuador's sovereign credit score?
Ecuador scores 38.6/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 38 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Ecuador USD bond does BondTerminal track?
ECUA 6.9 35 (ISIN XS2214238441), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 441 bps over Treasuries with a 8.56% yield to worst.
Is Ecuador trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Ecuador trades 201 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 240 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Ecuador bond directory — every Ecuador USD bond BondTerminal tracks.
- Ecuador vs Argentina — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Ecuador vs El Salvador — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Mexico — regional peer, BT-SFS 40.2 · 133 bps.
- Suriname — regional peer, BT-SFS 31.5 · 281 bps.
- Bolivia — regional peer, BT-SFS 20.9 · 497 bps.