Ecuador — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 28.2/100 · B− · 523bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Ecuador trades 175bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 348bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 28.2 / 100 |
| Rank | 43 of 51 |
| Composite rating | B− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Caa1 · S&P B · Fitch B- |
| Benchmark USD bond | ECUA 6.9 35 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 523bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 10.31% |
| Duration | 4.8y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 43.9 |
| External | 5.3 |
| Macro | 42.1 |
| Institutions | 51.9 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 2.9 mo | 5.3 | World Bank | 2025 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 54.4% | 40.6 | IMF | 2025 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 54.4% | 4.8 | Dollarised | 2025 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 3.2% | 90.9 | IMF | 2025 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -1.7% | 40.5 | IMF | 2025 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 47.5 | 25.5 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 4.8% | 91.5 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 2.9% | 40.8 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $7,575 | 59.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 4.9pp | 19.5 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Ecuador moves from 26.2 in 2016 to 28.2 in 2026 (+2.0 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
2008: payment_default (high) — Cruces & Trebesch sovereign haircut dataset, 2014 update.
2020: external_restructuring (high) — Republic of Ecuador press release (17 Apr 2020).
Frequently asked questions
What is Ecuador's sovereign credit score?
Ecuador scores 28.2/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 43 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Ecuador USD bond does BondTerminal track?
ECUA 6.9 35 (ISIN XS2214238441), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 523bps over Treasuries with a 10.31% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Ecuador trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Ecuador trades 175bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 348bps).