Poland — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 66.4/100 · A− · 63 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Poland trades 27 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 90 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 66.4 / 100 |
| Rank | 9 of 51 |
| Composite rating | A− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's A2 · S&P A- · Fitch A- |
| Benchmark USD bond | POLAND 5.75 32 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 63 bps |
| Yield to worst | 4.78% |
| Duration | 5.3y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 43.4 |
| External | 54.4 |
| Macro | 84.1 |
| Institutions | 91.7 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | -1.1% | 50.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 5.4 mo | 57.8 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 65.7% | 43.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 5.7% | 75.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -4.2% | 6.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | 0.68 | 91.7 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 3.3% | 51.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $31,336 | 95.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 3.3% | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Poland moves from 69.5 in 2016 to 66.4 in 2026 (-3.2 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Poland's sovereign credit score?
Poland scores 66.4/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 9 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Poland USD bond does BondTerminal track?
POLAND 5.75 32 (ISIN US857524AE20), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 63 bps over Treasuries with a 4.78% yield to worst.
Is Poland trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Poland trades 27 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 90 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Poland vs Hungary — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Poland vs Romania — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Poland vs China — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Azerbaijan — regional peer, BT-SFS 65.0 · 79 bps.
- Bulgaria — regional peer, BT-SFS 68.0 · 117 bps.
- Kazakhstan — regional peer, BT-SFS 68.5 · 76 bps.