Poland — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 61.8/100 · A− · 76bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Poland trades 25bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 101bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 61.8 / 100 |
| Rank | 11 of 51 |
| Composite rating | A− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's A2 · S&P A- · Fitch A- |
| Benchmark USD bond | POLAND 5.75 32 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 76bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 5.81% |
| Duration | 5.0y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 47.6 |
| External | 30.4 |
| Macro | 72.6 |
| Institutions | 95.7 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 5.9 mo | 30.4 | World Bank | 2025 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 65.7% | 24.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 17.2% | 73.1 | IMF staff report / Eurostat | 2025–2026 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 5.7% | 83.5 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -4.2% | 16.9 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 68.9 | 97.4 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 4.3% | 93.2 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 3.1% | 43.5 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $31,336 | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 2.6pp | 55.5 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Poland moves from 62.8 in 2016 to 61.8 in 2026 (-0.9 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Poland's sovereign credit score?
Poland scores 61.8/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 11 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Poland USD bond does BondTerminal track?
POLAND 5.75 32 (ISIN US857524AE20), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 76bps over Treasuries with a 5.81% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Poland trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Poland trades 25bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 101bps).