Bulgaria — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 68.0/100 · BBB+ · 117 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Bulgaria trades 32 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 85 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 68.0 / 100 |
| Rank | 7 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BBB+ |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Baa1 · S&P BBB+ · Fitch BBB+ |
| Benchmark USD bond | BGARIA 5 37 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 117 bps |
| Yield to worst | 5.32% |
| Duration | 8.0y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 70.0 |
| External | 59.3 |
| Macro | 77.5 |
| Institutions | 66.7 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | -4.0% | 22.9 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 7.4 mo | 86.7 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 28.2% | 91.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 1.9% | 95.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -2.6% | 14.6 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | -0.08 | 66.7 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 2.8% | 41.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $23,848 | 83.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 3.8% | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Bulgaria moves from 74.7 in 2016 to 68.0 in 2026 (-6.7 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Bulgaria's sovereign credit score?
Bulgaria scores 68.0/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 7 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Bulgaria USD bond does BondTerminal track?
BGARIA 5 37 (ISIN XS2890436087), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 117 bps over Treasuries with a 5.32% yield to worst.
Is Bulgaria trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Bulgaria trades 32 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 85 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Bulgaria vs Serbia — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Bulgaria vs Romania — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Kazakhstan — regional peer, BT-SFS 68.5 · 76 bps.
- Poland — regional peer, BT-SFS 66.4 · 63 bps.
- Azerbaijan — regional peer, BT-SFS 65.0 · 79 bps.