Bulgaria — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 70.1/100 · BBB+ · 104bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Bulgaria trades 29bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 75bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 70.1 / 100 |
| Rank | 4 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BBB+ |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Baa1 · S&P BBB+ · Fitch BBB+ |
| Benchmark USD bond | BGARIA 5 37 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 104bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 6.28% |
| Duration | 7.8y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 68.4 |
| External | — |
| Macro | 72.2 |
| Institutions | 70.4 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | — | — | missing | |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 28.2% | 77.5 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 21.1% | 65.9 | IMF staff report / Eurostat | 2025–2026 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 1.9% | 94.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -2.6% | 32.2 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 58.1 | 61.3 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 7.0% | 84.0 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 2.8% | 39.4 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $23,848 | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 2.5pp | 56.9 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Bulgaria moves from 62.4 in 2016 to 70.1 in 2026 (+7.7 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Bulgaria's sovereign credit score?
Bulgaria scores 70.1/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 4 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Bulgaria USD bond does BondTerminal track?
BGARIA 5 37 (ISIN XS2890436087), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 104bps over Treasuries with a 6.28% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Bulgaria trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Bulgaria trades 29bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 75bps).