Romania vs Bulgaria
Two sovereigns, nine shared metrics, one spread gap.
Head to head
| Romania | Bulgaria | |
|---|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 52.8 | 68.0 |
| Composite rating | BBB− | BBB+ |
| Fiscal pillar | 43.2 | 70.0 |
| External pillar | 28.4 | 59.3 |
| Macro pillar | 61.9 | 77.5 |
| Institutions pillar | 81.3 | 66.7 |
| Benchmark bond | ROMANI 3.625 32 | BGARIA 5 37 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 148 bps | 117 bps |
| Yield to worst | 5.63% | 5.32% |
| Duration | 5.0y | 8.0y |
Metric by metric
| Metric | Romania | Bulgaria |
|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | -6.8% (4.2) | -4.0% (22.9) |
| International reserves, months of imports | 4.9 mo (46.7) | 7.4 mo (86.7) |
| General government debt / GDP | 61.9% (47.9) | 28.2% (91.7) |
| Interest expense / revenue | 8.6% (66.7) | 1.9% (95.8) |
| Primary balance / GDP | -3.4% (10.4) | -2.6% (14.6) |
| WGI institutional composite | 0.27 (81.3) | -0.08 (66.7) |
| Real GDP growth | 0.7% (6.3) | 2.8% (41.7) |
| GDP per capita, USD | $25,693 (85.4) | $23,848 (83.3) |
| Inflation stress | 7.8% (86.0) | 3.8% (100.0) |
Frequently asked questions
Who has stronger fundamentals, Romania or Bulgaria?
Bulgaria scores higher on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score: 52.8 (Romania) vs 68.0 (Bulgaria), a gap of 15.2 points.
Whose USD bonds trade wider, Romania or Bulgaria?
Romania trades wider: 148 bps (Romania) vs 117 bps (Bulgaria) over US Treasuries — a 31 bps gap on near-5-year USD benchmarks.
Related
- Romania — full Romania profile: pillars, metrics, history.
- Bulgaria — full Bulgaria profile: pillars, metrics, history.
- All sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — how the scores are built.