Romania — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 52.8/100 · BBB− · 148 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Romania trades 3 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 145 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 52.8 / 100 |
| Rank | 23 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BBB− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Baa3 · S&P BBB- · Fitch BBB- |
| Benchmark USD bond | ROMANI 3.625 32 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 148 bps |
| Yield to worst | 5.63% |
| Duration | 5.0y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 43.2 |
| External | 28.4 |
| Macro | 61.9 |
| Institutions | 81.3 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | -6.8% | 4.2 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 4.9 mo | 46.7 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 61.9% | 47.9 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 8.6% | 66.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -3.4% | 10.4 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | 0.27 | 81.3 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 0.7% | 6.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $25,693 | 85.4 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 7.8% | 86.0 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Romania moves from 64.1 in 2016 to 52.8 in 2026 (-11.3 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Romania's sovereign credit score?
Romania scores 52.8/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 23 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Romania USD bond does BondTerminal track?
ROMANI 3.625 32 (ISIN XS2434896010), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 148 bps over Treasuries with a 5.63% yield to worst.
Is Romania trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Romania trades 3 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 145 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Romania bond directory — every Romania USD bond BondTerminal tracks.
- Romania vs Hungary — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Romania vs Poland — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Romania vs Bulgaria — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Turkiye — regional peer, BT-SFS 46.9 · 258 bps.
- Serbia — regional peer, BT-SFS 57.5 · 138 bps.
- Latvia — regional peer, BT-SFS 60.1 · 88 bps.