Romania — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 52.2/100 · BBB− · 177bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Romania trades 32bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 145bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 52.2 / 100 |
| Rank | 22 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BBB− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Baa3 · S&P BBB- · Fitch BBB- |
| Benchmark USD bond | ROMANI 7.125 33 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 177bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 6.83% |
| Duration | 4.9y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 44.1 |
| External | 27.6 |
| Macro | 63.8 |
| Institutions | 71.8 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 5.5 mo | 27.6 | World Bank | 2025 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 61.9% | 30.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 29.1% | 51.2 | World Bank/IMF QPSD | 2026 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 8.6% | 74.9 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -3.4% | 25.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 60.0 | 67.7 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 8.9% | 77.9 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 1.3% | 18.8 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $25,693 | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 3.1pp | 45.6 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Romania moves from 51.7 in 2016 to 52.2 in 2026 (+0.5 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Romania's sovereign credit score?
Romania scores 52.2/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 22 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Romania USD bond does BondTerminal track?
ROMANI 7.125 33 (ISIN XS2571923007), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 177bps over Treasuries with a 6.83% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Romania trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Romania trades 32bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 145bps).