Serbia — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 57.5/100 · BB+ · 138 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Serbia trades 15 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 123 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 57.5 / 100 |
| Rank | 15 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BB+ |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Ba2 · S&P BBB- · Fitch BB+ |
| Benchmark USD bond | SERBIA 6.5 33 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 138 bps |
| Yield to worst | 5.53% |
| Duration | 5.7y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 63.8 |
| External | 45.9 |
| Macro | 72.1 |
| Institutions | 50.0 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | -5.7% | 12.5 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 6.2 mo | 71.1 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 42.6% | 72.9 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 4.6% | 77.1 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -1.0% | 37.5 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | -0.22 | 50.0 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 2.8% | 41.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $17,252 | 66.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 5.2% | 99.0 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Serbia moves from 55.9 in 2016 to 57.5 in 2026 (+1.6 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Serbia's sovereign credit score?
Serbia scores 57.5/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 15 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Serbia USD bond does BondTerminal track?
SERBIA 6.5 33 (ISIN XS2580270275), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 138 bps over Treasuries with a 5.53% yield to worst.
Is Serbia trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Serbia trades 15 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 123 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Serbia vs Bulgaria — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Latvia — regional peer, BT-SFS 60.1 · 88 bps.
- Hungary — regional peer, BT-SFS 55.5 · 99 bps.
- Azerbaijan — regional peer, BT-SFS 65.0 · 79 bps.