Serbia — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 56.9/100 · BB+ · 140bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Serbia trades 19bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 121bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 56.9 / 100 |
| Rank | 13 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BB+ |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Ba2 · S&P BBB- · Fitch BB+ |
| Benchmark USD bond | SERBIA 6.5 33 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 140bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 6.50% |
| Duration | 5.5y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 58.6 |
| External | 32.9 |
| Macro | 70.0 |
| Institutions | 62.3 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 6.2 mo | 32.9 | World Bank | 2025 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 42.6% | 57.2 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 33.5% | 43.3 | World Bank/IMF QPSD | 2026 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 4.6% | 86.9 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -1.0% | 47.6 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 54.7 | 50.0 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 8.0% | 80.7 | IMF + World Bank | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 2.8% | 38.9 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $17,252 | 88.6 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 2.2pp | 65.9 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Serbia moves from 44.2 in 2016 to 56.9 in 2026 (+12.7 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Serbia's sovereign credit score?
Serbia scores 56.9/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 13 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Serbia USD bond does BondTerminal track?
SERBIA 6.5 33 (ISIN XS2580270275), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 140bps over Treasuries with a 6.50% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Serbia trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Serbia trades 19bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 121bps).