Serbia vs Bulgaria
Two sovereigns, nine shared metrics, one spread gap.
Head to head
| Serbia | Bulgaria | |
|---|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 57.5 | 68.0 |
| Composite rating | BB+ | BBB+ |
| Fiscal pillar | 63.8 | 70.0 |
| External pillar | 45.9 | 59.3 |
| Macro pillar | 72.1 | 77.5 |
| Institutions pillar | 50.0 | 66.7 |
| Benchmark bond | SERBIA 6.5 33 | BGARIA 5 37 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 138 bps | 117 bps |
| Yield to worst | 5.53% | 5.32% |
| Duration | 5.7y | 8.0y |
Metric by metric
| Metric | Serbia | Bulgaria |
|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | -5.7% (12.5) | -4.0% (22.9) |
| International reserves, months of imports | 6.2 mo (71.1) | 7.4 mo (86.7) |
| General government debt / GDP | 42.6% (72.9) | 28.2% (91.7) |
| Interest expense / revenue | 4.6% (77.1) | 1.9% (95.8) |
| Primary balance / GDP | -1.0% (37.5) | -2.6% (14.6) |
| WGI institutional composite | -0.22 (50.0) | -0.08 (66.7) |
| Real GDP growth | 2.8% (41.7) | 2.8% (41.7) |
| GDP per capita, USD | $17,252 (66.7) | $23,848 (83.3) |
| Inflation stress | 5.2% (99.0) | 3.8% (100.0) |
Frequently asked questions
Who has stronger fundamentals, Serbia or Bulgaria?
Bulgaria scores higher on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score: 57.5 (Serbia) vs 68.0 (Bulgaria), a gap of 10.5 points.
Whose USD bonds trade wider, Serbia or Bulgaria?
Serbia trades wider: 138 bps (Serbia) vs 117 bps (Bulgaria) over US Treasuries — a 21 bps gap on near-5-year USD benchmarks.
Related
- Serbia — full Serbia profile: pillars, metrics, history.
- Bulgaria — full Bulgaria profile: pillars, metrics, history.
- All sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — how the scores are built.