Azerbaijan — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 65.0/100 · BBB− · 79 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Azerbaijan trades 16 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 95 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 65.0 / 100 |
| Rank | 10 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BBB− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Baa3 · Fitch BBB- |
| Benchmark USD bond | AZERBJ 3.5 32 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 79 bps |
| Yield to worst | 4.94% |
| Duration | 4.6y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 96.2 |
| External | 65.3 |
| Macro | 57.4 |
| Institutions | 33.3 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | 9.7% | 95.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 4.7 mo | 42.2 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 20.0% | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 1.8% | 97.9 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | 2.5% | 89.6 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | -0.36 | 33.3 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 2.2% | 25.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $7,467 | 39.6 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 6.0% | 95.0 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Azerbaijan moves from 45.7 in 2016 to 65.0 in 2026 (+19.3 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Azerbaijan's sovereign credit score?
Azerbaijan scores 65.0/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 10 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Azerbaijan USD bond does BondTerminal track?
AZERBJ 3.5 32 (ISIN XS1678623734), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 79 bps over Treasuries with a 4.94% yield to worst.
Is Azerbaijan trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Azerbaijan trades 16 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 95 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Azerbaijan vs Kazakhstan — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Poland — regional peer, BT-SFS 66.4 · 63 bps.
- Bulgaria — regional peer, BT-SFS 68.0 · 117 bps.
- Latvia — regional peer, BT-SFS 60.1 · 88 bps.