Azerbaijan — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 61.2/100 · BBB− · 83bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Azerbaijan trades 21bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 104bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 61.2 / 100 |
| Rank | 12 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BBB− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Baa3 · Fitch BBB- |
| Benchmark USD bond | AZERBJ 3.5 32 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 83bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 5.81% |
| Duration | 4.3y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 89.7 |
| External | 22.8 |
| Macro | 48.5 |
| Institutions | 66.4 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 5.0 mo | 22.8 | World Bank | 2025 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 20.0% | 89.1 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 5.9% | 93.9 | IMF staff report / Eurostat | 2025–2026 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 1.8% | 95.2 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | 2.5% | 81.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 55.6 | 53.0 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 6.3% | 86.5 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 2.0% | 28.8 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $7,467 | 59.2 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 3.0pp | 47.2 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Azerbaijan moves from 39.5 in 2016 to 61.2 in 2026 (+21.7 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Azerbaijan's sovereign credit score?
Azerbaijan scores 61.2/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 12 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Azerbaijan USD bond does BondTerminal track?
AZERBJ 3.5 32 (ISIN XS1678623734), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 83bps over Treasuries with a 5.81% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Azerbaijan trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Azerbaijan trades 21bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 104bps).