Latvia — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 60.1/100 · A− · 88 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Latvia trades 24 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 112 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 60.1 / 100 |
| Rank | 14 of 51 |
| Composite rating | A− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's A3 · S&P A · Fitch A- |
| Benchmark USD bond | LATVIA 5.125 34 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 88 bps |
| Yield to worst | 5.03% |
| Duration | 6.4y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 61.0 |
| External | 13.3 |
| Macro | 75.0 |
| Institutions | 93.8 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | -3.6% | 25.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 1.8 mo | 4.4 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 47.4% | 70.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 3.0% | 87.5 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -2.1% | 18.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | 0.89 | 93.8 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 2.2% | 25.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $28,913 | 91.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 3.0% | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Latvia moves from 71.4 in 2016 to 60.1 in 2026 (-11.3 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Latvia's sovereign credit score?
Latvia scores 60.1/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 14 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Latvia USD bond does BondTerminal track?
LATVIA 5.125 34 (ISIN XS2829701718), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 88 bps over Treasuries with a 5.03% yield to worst.
Is Latvia trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Latvia trades 24 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 112 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Serbia — regional peer, BT-SFS 57.5 · 138 bps.
- Azerbaijan — regional peer, BT-SFS 65.0 · 79 bps.
- Poland — regional peer, BT-SFS 66.4 · 63 bps.