Latvia — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 77.5/100 · A− · 89bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Latvia trades 32bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 57bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 77.5 / 100 |
| Rank | 2 of 51 |
| Composite rating | A− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's A3 · S&P A · Fitch A- |
| Benchmark USD bond | LATVIA 5.125 34 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 89bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 6.03% |
| Duration | 6.2y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 68.1 |
| External | — |
| Macro | 69.0 |
| Institutions | 97.5 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | — | — | missing | |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 47.4% | 50.5 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 3.0% | 99.2 | World Bank/IMF QPSD | 2026 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 3.0% | 91.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -2.1% | 36.9 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 71.2 | 100.0 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 4.1% | 93.8 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 2.2% | 31.6 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $28,913 | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 2.7pp | 52.4 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Latvia moves from 72.7 in 2016 to 77.5 in 2026 (+4.8 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Latvia's sovereign credit score?
Latvia scores 77.5/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 2 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Latvia USD bond does BondTerminal track?
LATVIA 5.125 34 (ISIN XS2829701718), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 89bps over Treasuries with a 6.03% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Latvia trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Latvia trades 32bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 57bps).