Turkiye — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 46.9/100 · BB− · 258 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Turkiye trades 79 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 179 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 46.9 / 100 |
| Rank | 30 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BB− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Ba3 · S&P BB- · Fitch BB- |
| Benchmark USD bond | TURKEY 9.375 33 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 258 bps |
| Yield to worst | 6.73% |
| Duration | 4.8y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 71.5 |
| External | 39.7 |
| Macro | 46.7 |
| Institutions | 25.0 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | -2.8% | 33.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 4.7 mo | 44.4 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 25.5% | 95.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 10.2% | 58.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -0.3% | 58.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | -0.49 | 25.0 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 3.4% | 54.2 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $19,018 | 72.9 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 28.6% | 21.4 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Turkiye moves from 63.1 in 2016 to 46.9 in 2026 (-16.2 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Turkiye's sovereign credit score?
Turkiye scores 46.9/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 30 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Turkiye USD bond does BondTerminal track?
TURKEY 9.375 33 (ISIN US900123DG28), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 258 bps over Treasuries with a 6.73% yield to worst.
Is Turkiye trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Turkiye trades 79 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 179 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Turkiye bond directory — every Turkiye USD bond BondTerminal tracks.
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- Turkiye vs Argentina — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Romania — regional peer, BT-SFS 52.8 · 148 bps.
- Hungary — regional peer, BT-SFS 55.5 · 99 bps.
- Serbia — regional peer, BT-SFS 57.5 · 138 bps.