Turkiye — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 52.4/100 · BB− · 247bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Turkiye trades 104bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 143bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 52.4 / 100 |
| Rank | 19 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BB− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Ba3 · S&P BB- · Fitch BB- |
| Benchmark USD bond | TURKEY 6.3 33 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 247bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 7.55% |
| Duration | 5.1y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 73.3 |
| External | 20.9 |
| Macro | 67.9 |
| Institutions | 36.5 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 4.7 mo | 20.9 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 25.5% | 81.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 10.7% | 85.2 | World Bank/IMF QPSD | 2026 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 10.2% | 70.2 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -0.3% | 54.1 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 52.7 | 43.2 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 25.7% | 26.4 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 3.5% | 49.0 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $19,018 | 92.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 3.0pp | 48.3 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Turkiye moves from 54.5 in 2016 to 52.4 in 2026 (-2.1 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Turkiye's sovereign credit score?
Turkiye scores 52.4/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 19 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Turkiye USD bond does BondTerminal track?
TURKEY 6.3 33 (ISIN US900123DT49), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 247bps over Treasuries with a 7.55% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Turkiye trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Turkiye trades 104bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 143bps).