Kazakhstan — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 66.9/100 · BBB · 70bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Kazakhstan trades 14bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 84bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 66.9 / 100 |
| Rank | 5 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BBB |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Baa1 · S&P BBB · Fitch BBB |
| Benchmark USD bond | KAZAKS 5 32 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 70bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 5.74% |
| Duration | 4.8y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 79.9 |
| External | 43.1 |
| Macro | 75.3 |
| Institutions | 61.5 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 7.4 mo | 43.1 | World Bank | 2025 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 24.9% | 82.2 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 5.8% | 94.1 | World Bank/IMF QPSD | 2026 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 2.0% | 94.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -1.0% | 48.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 55.2 | 51.4 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 9.3% | 76.6 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 5.2% | 72.0 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $17,503 | 89.1 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 2.4pp | 59.0 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Kazakhstan moves from 49.4 in 2016 to 66.9 in 2026 (+17.5 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Kazakhstan's sovereign credit score?
Kazakhstan scores 66.9/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 5 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Kazakhstan USD bond does BondTerminal track?
KAZAKS 5 32 (ISIN XS3093655341), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 70bps over Treasuries with a 5.74% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Kazakhstan trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Kazakhstan trades 14bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 84bps).