Kazakhstan — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 68.5/100 · BBB · 76 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Kazakhstan trades 7 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 83 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 68.5 / 100 |
| Rank | 6 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BBB |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Baa1 · S&P BBB- · Fitch BBB |
| Benchmark USD bond | KAZAKS 5 32 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 76 bps |
| Yield to worst | 4.91% |
| Duration | 5.0y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 78.2 |
| External | 55.0 |
| Macro | 75.9 |
| Institutions | 64.6 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | -1.0% | 54.2 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 5.3 mo | 55.6 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 24.9% | 97.9 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 2.0% | 91.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -1.0% | 39.6 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | -0.10 | 64.6 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 4.6% | 87.5 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $17,503 | 68.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 10.7% | 72.7 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Kazakhstan moves from 48.3 in 2016 to 68.5 in 2026 (+20.3 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Kazakhstan's sovereign credit score?
Kazakhstan scores 68.5/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 6 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Kazakhstan USD bond does BondTerminal track?
KAZAKS 5 32 (ISIN XS3093655341), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 76 bps over Treasuries with a 4.91% yield to worst.
Is Kazakhstan trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Kazakhstan trades 7 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 83 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Kazakhstan vs Azerbaijan — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Bulgaria — regional peer, BT-SFS 68.0 · 117 bps.
- Poland — regional peer, BT-SFS 66.4 · 63 bps.
- Latvia — regional peer, BT-SFS 60.1 · 88 bps.