United Arab Emirates — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 86.9/100 · AA · 29 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
United Arab Emirates trades 15 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 44 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 86.9 / 100 |
| Rank | 1 of 51 |
| Composite rating | AA |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Aa2 · S&P AA · Fitch AA- |
| Benchmark USD bond | UAE 2 31 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 29 bps |
| Yield to worst | 4.44% |
| Duration | 4.9y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 92.0 |
| External | 72.1 |
| Macro | 84.1 |
| Institutions | 97.9 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | 11.4% | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 5.2 mo | 51.1 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 31.4% | 87.5 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 2.7% | 89.6 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | 5.6% | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | 0.98 | 97.9 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 3.1% | 46.9 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $54,214 | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 2.5% | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, United Arab Emirates moves from 83.7 in 2016 to 86.9 in 2026 (+3.3 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is United Arab Emirates's sovereign credit score?
United Arab Emirates scores 86.9/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 1 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which United Arab Emirates USD bond does BondTerminal track?
UAE 2 31 (ISIN XS2397053757), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 29 bps over Treasuries with a 4.44% yield to worst.
Is United Arab Emirates trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
United Arab Emirates trades 15 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 44 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- United Arab Emirates bond directory — every United Arab Emirates USD bond BondTerminal tracks.
- United Arab Emirates vs Saudi Arabia — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Oman — regional peer, BT-SFS 80.0 · 79 bps.
- Jordan — regional peer, BT-SFS 56.5 · 136 bps.
- Morocco — regional peer, BT-SFS 52.2 · 126 bps.