Ghana — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 45.0/100 · B− · 303 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Ghana trades 112 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 191 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 45.0 / 100 |
| Rank | 32 of 51 |
| Composite rating | B− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Caa1 · S&P B- · Fitch B |
| Benchmark USD bond | GHANA 5 35 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 303 bps |
| Yield to worst | 7.18% |
| Duration | 5.1y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 56.5 |
| External | 43.4 |
| Macro | 69.7 |
| Institutions | 68.8 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | 10.1% | 97.9 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 1.6 mo | 2.2 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 53.0% | 66.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 22.2% | 25.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | 1.5% | 81.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | -0.03 | 68.8 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 4.8% | 89.6 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $3,314 | 14.6 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 5.8% | 96.0 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Ghana moves from 37.3 in 2016 to 45.0 in 2026 (+7.7 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
2022: debt_standstill (high) — Ghana Ministry of Finance Eurobond exchange completion.
Frequently asked questions
What is Ghana's sovereign credit score?
Ghana scores 45.0/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 32 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Ghana USD bond does BondTerminal track?
GHANA 5 35 (ISIN XS2893151287), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 303 bps over Treasuries with a 7.18% yield to worst.
Is Ghana trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Ghana trades 112 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 191 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Ghana vs Zambia — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Ghana vs Angola — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Nigeria — regional peer, BT-SFS 42.5 · 307 bps.
- Kenya — regional peer, BT-SFS 33.5 · 364 bps.
- South Africa — regional peer, BT-SFS 53.6 · 123 bps.