Nigeria — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 42.5/100 · B− · 307 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Nigeria trades 98 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 209 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 42.5 / 100 |
| Rank | 34 of 51 |
| Composite rating | B− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's B3 · S&P B- · Fitch B |
| Benchmark USD bond | NGERIA 7.375 33 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 307 bps |
| Yield to worst | 7.22% |
| Duration | 5.5y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 42.4 |
| External | 83.8 |
| Macro | 44.2 |
| Institutions | 0.0 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | 5.8% | 91.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 7.1 mo | 77.8 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 32.3% | 83.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 25.9% | 14.6 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -1.6% | 27.1 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | -1.04 | 0.0 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 4.1% | 74.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $1,556 | 0.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 16.0% | 55.0 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Nigeria moves from 38.6 in 2016 to 42.5 in 2026 (+3.9 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Nigeria's sovereign credit score?
Nigeria scores 42.5/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 34 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Nigeria USD bond does BondTerminal track?
NGERIA 7.375 33 (ISIN XS2384701020), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 307 bps over Treasuries with a 7.22% yield to worst.
Is Nigeria trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Nigeria trades 98 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 209 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Nigeria vs Angola — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Nigeria vs Egypt — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Nigeria vs Kenya — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Ghana — regional peer, BT-SFS 45.0 · 303 bps.
- Zambia — regional peer, BT-SFS 25.0 · 230 bps.
- South Africa — regional peer, BT-SFS 53.6 · 123 bps.