Nigeria — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 38.5/100 · B− · 291bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Nigeria trades 52bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 239bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 38.5 / 100 |
| Rank | 36 of 51 |
| Composite rating | B− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's B3 · S&P B- · Fitch B |
| Benchmark USD bond | NGERIA 7.375 33 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 291bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 8.02% |
| Duration | 5.3y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 55.3 |
| External | 40.8 |
| Macro | 29.7 |
| Institutions | 22.5 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 7.1 mo | 40.8 | World Bank | 2025 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 32.3% | 71.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 14.0% | 78.9 | World Bank/IMF QPSD | 2025–2026 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 25.9% | 23.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -1.6% | 41.5 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 39.0 | 0.0 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 15.7% | 56.2 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 4.1% | 57.8 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $1,556 | 4.1 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 3.1pp | 45.2 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Nigeria moves from 42.5 in 2016 to 38.5 in 2026 (-4.1 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Nigeria's sovereign credit score?
Nigeria scores 38.5/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 36 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Nigeria USD bond does BondTerminal track?
NGERIA 7.375 33 (ISIN XS2384701020), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 291bps over Treasuries with a 8.02% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Nigeria trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Nigeria trades 52bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 239bps).