Zambia — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 19.6/100 · CCC+ · 256bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Zambia trades 220bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 476bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 19.6 / 100 |
| Rank | 48 of 51 |
| Composite rating | CCC+ |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Caa2 · S&P CCC+ · Fitch B- |
| Benchmark USD bond | ZAMBIN 5.75 33 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 256bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 7.47% |
| Duration | 3.0y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 23.6 |
| External | 8.9 |
| Macro | 37.5 |
| Institutions | 38.7 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 3.3 mo | 8.9 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 86.0% | 0.0 | IMF | 2025 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 53.5% | 6.5 | IMF staff report / Eurostat | 2024–2025 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 25.5% | 24.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | 1.4% | 71.1 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 46.0 | 20.7 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 12.7% | 65.7 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 4.3% | 59.6 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $1,831 | 9.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 2.4pp | 59.7 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Zambia moves from 28.0 in 2016 to 19.6 in 2026 (-8.4 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
2020: payment_default (high) — Center for Global Development, Zambia case study on G20 Common Framework restructuring [secondary].
Frequently asked questions
What is Zambia's sovereign credit score?
Zambia scores 19.6/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 48 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Zambia USD bond does BondTerminal track?
ZAMBIN 5.75 33 (ISIN XS2837240261), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 256bps over Treasuries with a 7.47% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Zambia trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Zambia trades 220bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 476bps).