Zambia — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 25.0/100 · CCC+ · 230 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Zambia trades 157 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 387 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 25.0 / 100 |
| Rank | 44 of 51 |
| Composite rating | CCC+ |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Caa2 · S&P CCC+ · Fitch B- |
| Benchmark USD bond | ZAMBIN 5.75 33 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 230 bps |
| Yield to worst | 6.45% |
| Duration | 2.5y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 36.1 |
| External | 43.1 |
| Macro | 58.3 |
| Institutions | 22.9 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | 0.9% | 70.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 3.3 mo | 22.2 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 86.0% | 18.8 | IMF | 2025 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 25.5% | 16.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | 1.4% | 79.2 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | -0.52 | 22.9 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 4.3% | 81.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $1,831 | 6.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 9.0% | 80.0 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Zambia moves from 30.8 in 2016 to 25.0 in 2026 (-5.8 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
2020: payment_default (high) — FinDev Lab review of the 2020 Zambia default.
2024: external_restructuring (high) — Zambia Ministry of Finance Eurobond restructuring announcement.
Frequently asked questions
What is Zambia's sovereign credit score?
Zambia scores 25.0/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 44 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Zambia USD bond does BondTerminal track?
ZAMBIN 5.75 33 (ISIN XS2837240261), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 230 bps over Treasuries with a 6.45% yield to worst.
Is Zambia trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Zambia trades 157 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 387 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Zambia vs Sri Lanka — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Zambia vs Ghana — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Kenya — regional peer, BT-SFS 33.5 · 364 bps.
- Angola — regional peer, BT-SFS 42.4 · 494 bps.
- Nigeria — regional peer, BT-SFS 42.5 · 307 bps.