Kenya — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 36.7/100 · B− · 413bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Kenya trades 159bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 254bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 36.7 / 100 |
| Rank | 38 of 51 |
| Composite rating | B− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's B3 · S&P B · Fitch B- |
| Benchmark USD bond | KENINT 6.3 34 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 413bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 9.23% |
| Duration | 5.2y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 27.9 |
| External | 15.1 |
| Macro | 49.4 |
| Institutions | 54.0 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 4.0 mo | 15.1 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 71.6% | 16.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 32.4% | 45.2 | World Bank/IMF QPSD | 2025–2026 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 31.9% | 5.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -0.9% | 48.4 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 49.8 | 33.3 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 6.7% | 85.0 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 4.7% | 65.6 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $2,714 | 23.6 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 1.9pp | 73.0 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Kenya moves from 41.9 in 2016 to 36.7 in 2026 (-5.1 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Kenya's sovereign credit score?
Kenya scores 36.7/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 38 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Kenya USD bond does BondTerminal track?
KENINT 6.3 34 (ISIN XS2354781614), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 413bps over Treasuries with a 9.23% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Kenya trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Kenya trades 159bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 254bps).