Kenya — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 33.5/100 · B− · 364 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Kenya trades 77 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 287 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 33.5 / 100 |
| Rank | 41 of 51 |
| Composite rating | B− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's B3 · S&P B · Fitch B- |
| Benchmark USD bond | KENINT 6.3 34 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 364 bps |
| Yield to worst | 7.79% |
| Duration | 5.4y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 26.4 |
| External | 28.0 |
| Macro | 67.0 |
| Institutions | 20.8 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | -4.1% | 20.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 4.0 mo | 33.3 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 71.6% | 31.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 31.9% | 8.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -0.9% | 41.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | -0.52 | 20.8 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 4.5% | 85.4 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $2,714 | 10.4 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 5.9% | 95.5 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Kenya moves from 33.8 in 2016 to 33.5 in 2026 (-0.3 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Kenya's sovereign credit score?
Kenya scores 33.5/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 41 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Kenya USD bond does BondTerminal track?
KENINT 6.3 34 (ISIN XS2354781614), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 364 bps over Treasuries with a 7.79% yield to worst.
Is Kenya trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Kenya trades 77 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 287 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Kenya vs Nigeria — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Zambia — regional peer, BT-SFS 25.0 · 230 bps.
- Angola — regional peer, BT-SFS 42.4 · 494 bps.
- Ghana — regional peer, BT-SFS 45.0 · 303 bps.