Nigeria vs Kenya
Two sovereigns, nine shared metrics, one spread gap.
Head to head
| Nigeria | Kenya | |
|---|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 42.5 | 33.5 |
| Composite rating | B− | B− |
| Fiscal pillar | 42.4 | 26.4 |
| External pillar | 83.8 | 28.0 |
| Macro pillar | 44.2 | 67.0 |
| Institutions pillar | 0.0 | 20.8 |
| Benchmark bond | NGERIA 7.375 33 | KENINT 6.3 34 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 307 bps | 364 bps |
| Yield to worst | 7.22% | 7.79% |
| Duration | 5.5y | 5.4y |
Metric by metric
| Metric | Nigeria | Kenya |
|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | 5.8% (91.7) | -4.1% (20.8) |
| International reserves, months of imports | 7.1 mo (77.8) | 4.0 mo (33.3) |
| General government debt / GDP | 32.3% (83.3) | 71.6% (31.3) |
| Interest expense / revenue | 25.9% (14.6) | 31.9% (8.3) |
| Primary balance / GDP | -1.6% (27.1) | -0.9% (41.7) |
| WGI institutional composite | -1.04 (0.0) | -0.52 (20.8) |
| Real GDP growth | 4.1% (74.0) | 4.5% (85.4) |
| GDP per capita, USD | $1,556 (0.0) | $2,714 (10.4) |
| Inflation stress | 16.0% (55.0) | 5.9% (95.5) |
Frequently asked questions
Who has stronger fundamentals, Nigeria or Kenya?
Nigeria scores higher on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score: 42.5 (Nigeria) vs 33.5 (Kenya), a gap of 9.0 points.
Whose USD bonds trade wider, Nigeria or Kenya?
Kenya trades wider: 307 bps (Nigeria) vs 364 bps (Kenya) over US Treasuries — a 57 bps gap on near-5-year USD benchmarks.
Related
- Nigeria — full Nigeria profile: pillars, metrics, history.
- Kenya — full Kenya profile: pillars, metrics, history.
- All sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — how the scores are built.