South Africa — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 48.8/100 · BB · 126bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
South Africa trades 38bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 164bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 48.8 / 100 |
| Rank | 29 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BB |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Ba2 · S&P BB · Fitch BB |
| Benchmark USD bond | SOAF 5.875 32 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 126bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 6.28% |
| Duration | 4.5y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 47.7 |
| External | 33.4 |
| Macro | 48.4 |
| Institutions | 62.9 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 6.2 mo | 33.4 | World Bank | 2025 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 78.9% | 6.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 6.8% | 92.2 | World Bank/IMF QPSD | 2025–2026 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 19.3% | 43.2 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | 0.6% | 63.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 53.1 | 44.4 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 5.1% | 90.5 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 1.1% | 16.4 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $7,503 | 59.4 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 2.6pp | 55.1 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, South Africa moves from 55.9 in 2016 to 48.8 in 2026 (-7.1 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is South Africa's sovereign credit score?
South Africa scores 48.8/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 29 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which South Africa USD bond does BondTerminal track?
SOAF 5.875 32 (ISIN US836205BC70), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 126bps over Treasuries with a 6.28% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is South Africa trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
South Africa trades 38bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 164bps).