South Africa — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 53.6/100 · BB · 123 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
South Africa trades 18 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 141 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 53.6 / 100 |
| Rank | 21 of 51 |
| Composite rating | BB |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Ba2 · S&P BB · Fitch BB |
| Benchmark USD bond | SOAF 5.875 32 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 123 bps |
| Yield to worst | 5.38% |
| Duration | 4.8y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 42.3 |
| External | 60.9 |
| Macro | 55.6 |
| Institutions | 58.3 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | -0.9% | 56.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 5.7 mo | 64.4 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 78.9% | 27.1 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 19.3% | 31.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | 0.6% | 72.9 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | -0.13 | 58.3 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 1.0% | 10.4 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $7,503 | 41.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 3.9% | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, South Africa moves from 57.8 in 2016 to 53.6 in 2026 (-4.2 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is South Africa's sovereign credit score?
South Africa scores 53.6/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 21 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which South Africa USD bond does BondTerminal track?
SOAF 5.875 32 (ISIN US836205BC70), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 123 bps over Treasuries with a 5.38% yield to worst.
Is South Africa trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
South Africa trades 18 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 141 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- South Africa bond directory — every South Africa USD bond BondTerminal tracks.
- South Africa vs Brazil — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Ghana — regional peer, BT-SFS 45.0 · 303 bps.
- Nigeria — regional peer, BT-SFS 42.5 · 307 bps.
- Angola — regional peer, BT-SFS 42.4 · 494 bps.