Pakistan — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 30.3/100 · B− · 330bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Pakistan trades 8bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 322bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 30.3 / 100 |
| Rank | 41 of 51 |
| Composite rating | B− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's B3 · S&P B · Fitch B- |
| Benchmark USD bond | PKSTAN 7.5 32 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 330bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 8.31% |
| Duration | 4.3y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 38.7 |
| External | 12.8 |
| Macro | 34.2 |
| Institutions | 29.7 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 3.8 mo | 12.8 | World Bank | 2025 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 70.1% | 18.5 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 23.4% | 61.7 | World Bank/IMF QPSD | 2023–2026 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 36.2% | 0.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | 2.5% | 81.5 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 39.8 | 0.0 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 10.0% | 74.3 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 3.4% | 47.7 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $1,696 | 7.1 | IMF | 2025 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 2.3pp | 61.4 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Pakistan moves from 39.3 in 2016 to 30.3 in 2026 (-9.0 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Pakistan's sovereign credit score?
Pakistan scores 30.3/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 41 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Pakistan USD bond does BondTerminal track?
PKSTAN 7.5 32 (ISIN XS3497415557), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 330bps over Treasuries with a 8.31% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Pakistan trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Pakistan trades 8bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 322bps).