Pakistan — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 34.3/100 · B− · 318 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Pakistan trades 39 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 279 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 34.3 / 100 |
| Rank | 39 of 51 |
| Composite rating | B− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Caa1 · S&P B- · Fitch B- |
| Benchmark USD bond | PKSTAN 7.375 31 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 318 bps |
| Yield to worst | 7.33% |
| Duration | 3.9y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 41.4 |
| External | 37.5 |
| Macro | 54.7 |
| Institutions | 6.3 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | -0.4% | 66.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 2.8 mo | 15.6 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 70.1% | 35.4 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 36.2% | 4.2 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | 2.5% | 91.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | -0.89 | 6.3 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 3.6% | 61.5 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $1,696 | 2.1 | IMF | 2025 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 7.2% | 89.0 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Pakistan moves from 36.6 in 2016 to 34.3 in 2026 (-2.3 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Pakistan's sovereign credit score?
Pakistan scores 34.3/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 39 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Pakistan USD bond does BondTerminal track?
PKSTAN 7.375 31 (ISIN XS2322319638), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 318 bps over Treasuries with a 7.33% yield to worst.
Is Pakistan trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Pakistan trades 39 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 279 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Pakistan vs Egypt — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Pakistan vs Sri Lanka — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Bahrain — regional peer, BT-SFS 45.5 · 269 bps.
- Morocco — regional peer, BT-SFS 52.2 · 126 bps.
- Jordan — regional peer, BT-SFS 56.5 · 136 bps.