Bahrain — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 43.7/100 · B · 373bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Bahrain trades 176bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 197bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 43.7 / 100 |
| Rank | 33 of 51 |
| Composite rating | B |
| Agency ratings | Moody's B2 · S&P B · Fitch B |
| Benchmark USD bond | BHRAIN 5.45 32 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 373bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 8.78% |
| Duration | 4.8y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 7.1 |
| External | 0.0 |
| Macro | 66.9 |
| Institutions | 94.4 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 1.4 mo | 0.0 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 152.4% | 0.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | — | — | missing | |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 35.6% | 0.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -3.5% | 23.6 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 66.9 | 90.6 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 2.0% | 100.0 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 2.4% | 33.4 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $29,569 | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 3.1pp | 45.0 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Bahrain moves from 45.6 in 2016 to 43.7 in 2026 (-1.9 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Bahrain's sovereign credit score?
Bahrain scores 43.7/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 33 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Bahrain USD bond does BondTerminal track?
BHRAIN 5.45 32 (ISIN XS2226916216), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 373bps over Treasuries with a 8.78% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Bahrain trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Bahrain trades 176bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 197bps).