Bahrain — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 45.5/100 · B · 269 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Bahrain trades 81 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 188 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 45.5 / 100 |
| Rank | 31 of 51 |
| Composite rating | B |
| Agency ratings | Moody's B2 · S&P B · Fitch B |
| Benchmark USD bond | BHRAIN 5.45 32 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 269 bps |
| Yield to worst | 6.84% |
| Duration | 5.1y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 4.7 |
| External | 37.6 |
| Macro | 69.4 |
| Institutions | 83.3 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | 3.9% | 87.5 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 1.4 mo | 0.0 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 152.4% | 0.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 35.6% | 6.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -3.5% | 8.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | 0.34 | 83.3 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | -0.5% | 4.2 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $29,569 | 93.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 2.4% | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Bahrain moves from 43.1 in 2016 to 45.5 in 2026 (+2.4 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Bahrain's sovereign credit score?
Bahrain scores 45.5/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 31 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Bahrain USD bond does BondTerminal track?
BHRAIN 5.45 32 (ISIN XS2226916216), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 269 bps over Treasuries with a 6.84% yield to worst.
Is Bahrain trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Bahrain trades 81 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 188 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Bahrain vs Oman — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Bahrain vs Saudi Arabia — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Morocco — regional peer, BT-SFS 52.2 · 126 bps.
- Pakistan — regional peer, BT-SFS 34.3 · 318 bps.
- Egypt — regional peer, BT-SFS 33.5 · 323 bps.