Egypt — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 38.4/100 · B− · 338bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Egypt trades 99bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 239bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 38.4 / 100 |
| Rank | 37 of 51 |
| Composite rating | B− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Caa1 · S&P B · Fitch B |
| Benchmark USD bond | EGYPT 7.3 33 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 338bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 8.49% |
| Duration | 5.3y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 29.8 |
| External | 17.8 |
| Macro | 63.4 |
| Institutions | 43.8 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 4.4 mo | 17.8 | World Bank | 2025 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 87.0% | 0.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 31.4% | 47.0 | IMF staff report / Eurostat | 2025–2026 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 88.4% | 0.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | 2.6% | 82.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 48.9 | 30.3 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 13.2% | 63.9 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 4.5% | 62.4 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $3,904 | 36.4 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 1.2pp | 100.0 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Egypt moves from 31.1 in 2016 to 38.4 in 2026 (+7.3 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Egypt's sovereign credit score?
Egypt scores 38.4/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 37 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Egypt USD bond does BondTerminal track?
EGYPT 7.3 33 (ISIN XS2391395154), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 338bps over Treasuries with a 8.49% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Egypt trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Egypt trades 99bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 239bps).