Egypt — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 33.5/100 · B− · 323 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Egypt trades 37 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 286 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 33.5 / 100 |
| Rank | 40 of 51 |
| Composite rating | B− |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Caa1 · S&P B · Fitch B |
| Benchmark USD bond | EGYPT 9.45 33 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 323 bps |
| Yield to worst | 7.38% |
| Duration | 4.8y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 34.0 |
| External | 30.9 |
| Macro | 54.8 |
| Institutions | 18.8 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | -4.2% | 18.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 4.5 mo | 40.0 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 87.0% | 16.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 88.4% | 0.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | 2.6% | 93.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | -0.56 | 18.8 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 4.2% | 78.1 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $3,904 | 18.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 13.2% | 64.3 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Egypt moves from 24.1 in 2016 to 33.5 in 2026 (+9.5 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Egypt's sovereign credit score?
Egypt scores 33.5/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 40 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Egypt USD bond does BondTerminal track?
EGYPT 9.45 33 (ISIN XS2990500766), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 323 bps over Treasuries with a 7.38% yield to worst.
Is Egypt trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Egypt trades 37 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 286 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Egypt bond directory — every Egypt USD bond BondTerminal tracks.
- Egypt vs Turkiye — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Egypt vs Nigeria — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Egypt vs Pakistan — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Bahrain — regional peer, BT-SFS 45.5 · 269 bps.
- Morocco — regional peer, BT-SFS 52.2 · 126 bps.
- Jordan — regional peer, BT-SFS 56.5 · 136 bps.