China — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 64.6/100 · A+ · -33bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
China trades 125bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 92bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 64.6 / 100 |
| Rank | 7 of 51 |
| Composite rating | A+ |
| Agency ratings | Moody's A1 · S&P A+ · Fitch A |
| Benchmark USD bond | CHINA 1.75 31 |
| Spread over Treasuries | -33bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 4.66% |
| Duration | 4.7y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 26.1 |
| External | 81.1 |
| Macro | 76.6 |
| Institutions | 79.3 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 11.9 mo | 81.1 | World Bank | 2025 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 106.9% | 0.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | — | — | missing | |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 4.5% | 87.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -7.0% | 0.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 59.4 | 65.4 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 1.8% | 100.0 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 4.5% | 62.4 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $14,874 | 83.4 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 1.8pp | 77.1 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, China moves from 75.7 in 2016 to 64.6 in 2026 (-11.0 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is China's sovereign credit score?
China scores 64.6/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 7 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which China USD bond does BondTerminal track?
CHINA 1.75 31 (ISIN USY5325QAF91), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently -33bps over Treasuries with a 4.66% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is China trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
China trades 125bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 92bps).