China — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 67.7/100 · A+ · -32 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
China trades 118 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 86 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 67.7 / 100 |
| Rank | 8 of 51 |
| Composite rating | A+ |
| Agency ratings | Moody's A1 · S&P A+ · Fitch A |
| Benchmark USD bond | CHINA 1.75 31 |
| Spread over Treasuries | -32 bps |
| Yield to worst | 3.83% |
| Duration | 5.0y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 31.1 |
| External | 91.6 |
| Macro | 83.8 |
| Institutions | 75.0 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | 3.5% | 83.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 11.2 mo | 97.8 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 106.9% | 6.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 4.5% | 79.2 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -7.0% | 4.2 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | 0.14 | 75.0 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 4.4% | 83.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $14,874 | 62.5 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 1.2% | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, China moves from 73.3 in 2016 to 67.7 in 2026 (-5.6 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is China's sovereign credit score?
China scores 67.7/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 8 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which China USD bond does BondTerminal track?
CHINA 1.75 31 (ISIN USY5325QAF91), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently -32 bps over Treasuries with a 3.83% yield to worst.
Is China trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
China trades 118 bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 86 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- China vs Indonesia — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- China vs Poland — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Philippines — regional peer, BT-SFS 51.2 · 45 bps.