Saudi Arabia — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 81.6/100 · A+ · 77bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Saudi Arabia trades 28bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 49bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 81.6 / 100 |
| Rank | 1 of 51 |
| Composite rating | A+ |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Aa3 · S&P A+ · Fitch A+ |
| Benchmark USD bond | KSA 5.5 32 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 77bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 5.83% |
| Duration | 4.9y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 69.6 |
| External | 100.0 |
| Macro | 67.6 |
| Institutions | 95.0 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 15.6 mo | 100.0 | World Bank | 2025 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 32.1% | 72.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 12.0% | 82.6 | World Bank/IMF QPSD | 2026 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 1.9% | 94.7 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -3.0% | 28.3 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 67.3 | 92.0 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 2.5% | 99.4 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 4.0% | 56.4 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $37,811 | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 3.9pp | 32.0 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Saudi Arabia moves from 76.4 in 2016 to 81.6 in 2026 (+5.2 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Saudi Arabia's sovereign credit score?
Saudi Arabia scores 81.6/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 1 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Saudi Arabia USD bond does BondTerminal track?
KSA 5.5 32 (ISIN XS2548892020), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 77bps over Treasuries with a 5.83% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Saudi Arabia trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Saudi Arabia trades 28bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 49bps).