Saudi Arabia — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 77.5/100 · A+ · 75 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Saudi Arabia trades 14 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 61 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 77.5 / 100 |
| Rank | 3 of 51 |
| Composite rating | A+ |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Aa3 · S&P A+ · Fitch A+ |
| Benchmark USD bond | KSA 2.75 32 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 75 bps |
| Yield to worst | 4.90% |
| Duration | 5.0y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 66.5 |
| External | 74.0 |
| Macro | 83.4 |
| Institutions | 89.6 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | -1.6% | 39.6 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 15.1 mo | 100.0 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 32.1% | 85.4 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 1.9% | 93.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -3.0% | 12.5 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | 0.58 | 89.6 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 3.1% | 46.9 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $37,811 | 97.9 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 2.3% | 100.0 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Saudi Arabia moves from 72.5 in 2016 to 77.5 in 2026 (+5.1 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
No bond default or restructuring events in the registry window.
Frequently asked questions
What is Saudi Arabia's sovereign credit score?
Saudi Arabia scores 77.5/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 3 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Saudi Arabia USD bond does BondTerminal track?
KSA 2.75 32 (ISIN XS2109766472), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 75 bps over Treasuries with a 4.90% yield to worst.
Is Saudi Arabia trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Saudi Arabia trades 14 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 61 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Saudi Arabia bond directory — every Saudi Arabia USD bond BondTerminal tracks.
- Saudi Arabia vs United Arab Emirates — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Saudi Arabia vs Oman — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Saudi Arabia vs Bahrain — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Jordan — regional peer, BT-SFS 56.5 · 136 bps.
- Morocco — regional peer, BT-SFS 52.2 · 126 bps.
- Pakistan — regional peer, BT-SFS 34.3 · 318 bps.