Sri Lanka — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 32.1/100 · CCC+ · 394 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Sri Lanka trades 92 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 302 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 32.1 / 100 |
| Rank | 43 of 51 |
| Composite rating | CCC+ |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Caa1 · S&P CCC+ · Fitch CCC+ |
| Benchmark USD bond | SRILAN 3.6 35 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 394bps |
| Yield to worst | 8.83% |
| Duration | 6.2y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 30.6 |
| External | 43.2 |
| Macro | 75.3 |
| Institutions | 43.8 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | 1.2% | 74.0 | IMF | 2024 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 2.9 mo | 20.0 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 100.8% | 10.4 | IMF | 2024 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 55.6% | 2.1 | IMF | 2024 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | 2.2% | 87.5 | IMF | 2024 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | -0.31 | 43.8 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 5.0% | 94.8 | IMF | 2024 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $4,516 | 22.9 | IMF | 2024 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 1.2% | 100.0 | IMF | 2024 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Sri Lanka moves from 46.3 in 2016 to 32.1 in 2026 (-14.3 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
2022: payment_default (high) — IMF working paper on Sri Lanka restructuring.
Frequently asked questions
What is Sri Lanka's sovereign credit score?
Sri Lanka scores 32.1/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 43 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Sri Lanka USD bond does BondTerminal track?
SRILAN 3.6 35 (ISIN XS2966242179), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 394 bps over Treasuries with a 8.83% yield to worst.
Is Sri Lanka trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Sri Lanka trades 92 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 302 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Sri Lanka vs Zambia — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Sri Lanka vs Pakistan — fundamentals and spreads head to head.