Sri Lanka — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 19.9/100 · CCC+ · 411bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Sri Lanka trades 61bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 472bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 19.9 / 100 |
| Rank | 47 of 51 |
| Composite rating | CCC+ |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Caa1 · S&P CCC+ · Fitch CCC+ |
| Benchmark USD bond | SRILAN 3.6 35 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 411bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 9.27% |
| Duration | 6.3y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 26.7 |
| External | 5.4 |
| Macro | 41.6 |
| Institutions | 50.9 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 2.9 mo | 5.4 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 100.8% | 0.0 | IMF | 2024 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 36.5% | 37.6 | World Bank/IMF QPSD | 2024 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 55.6% | 0.0 | IMF | 2024 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | 2.2% | 78.2 | IMF | 2024 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 50.0 | 34.0 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 9.4% | 76.3 | IMF + World Bank | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 5.0% | 69.1 | World Bank | 2025 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $4,516 | 41.5 | IMF | 2024 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 4.6pp | 23.5 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Sri Lanka moves from 37.7 in 2016 to 19.9 in 2026 (-17.9 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
2022: payment_default (high) — Sri Lanka Ministry of Finance, Sri Lanka's Public Debt Restructuring supplementary note (1 Jan 2025).
2023: domestic_distressed_exchange (other) — Sri Lanka Ministry of Finance, Sri Lanka's Public Debt Restructuring supplementary note (1 Jan 2025).
Frequently asked questions
What is Sri Lanka's sovereign credit score?
Sri Lanka scores 19.9/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 47 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Sri Lanka USD bond does BondTerminal track?
SRILAN 3.6 35 (ISIN XS2966242179), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 411bps over Treasuries with a 9.27% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Sri Lanka trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Sri Lanka trades 61bps tight of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 472bps).