Ukraine — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 14.7/100 · CC · 977bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Ukraine trades 407bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 570bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS | 14.7 / 100 |
| Rank | 50 of 51 |
| Composite rating | CC |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Ca · S&P CCC+ · Fitch D |
| Benchmark USD bond | UKRAINE 4.5 34 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 977bps |
| Yield to worst (S.A.) | 14.89% |
| Duration | 5.2y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 15.1 |
| External | 23.4 |
| Macro | 32.9 |
| Institutions | 38.8 |
The ten metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves, months of imports | External | 5.0 mo | 23.4 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 122.6% | 0.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| FX public debt / GDP | Fiscal | 98.3% | 0.0 | IMF staff report / Eurostat | 2025–2026 |
| Net interest / revenue | Fiscal | 11.8% | 65.4 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -13.3% | 0.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| Governance (WGI GE + RQ) | Institutions | 45.4 | 18.6 | WGI | 2025 |
| Inflation track record | Institutions | 11.6% | 69.0 | IMF | 1997–2026 (h=10) |
| Real GDP growth, centred 3-year | Macro | 2.4% | 34.4 | IMF | 2025–2027 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $6,980 | 56.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| Growth volatility, 10-year | Macro | 9.6pp | 0.0 | IMF | 2016–2025 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Ukraine moves from 7.3 in 2016 to 14.7 in 2026 (+7.3 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
2015: external_restructuring (high) — Weil Gotshal, Ukraine's Sovereign Restructuring memo (Nov 2015) [secondary].
2022: external_restructuring (high) — Ministry of Finance of Ukraine press release (10 Aug 2022).
2025: payment_default (high) — Kyiv Independent, Ukraine defaults on GDP-linked sovereign debt payment (4 Jun 2025) [secondary].
Frequently asked questions
What is Ukraine's sovereign credit score?
Ukraine scores 14.7/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 50 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from ten public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Ukraine USD bond does BondTerminal track?
UKRAINE 4.5 34 (ISIN XS2895056013), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 977bps over Treasuries with a 14.89% yield to worst (S.A.).
Is Ukraine trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Ukraine trades 407bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 570bps).