Ukraine — Sovereign Signal
BT-SFS 11.5/100 · CC · 825 bps over Treasuries
Score and market snapshot
Ukraine trades 201 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 624 bps).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| BT-SFS score | 11.5 / 100 |
| Rank | 48 of 51 |
| Composite rating | CC |
| Agency ratings | Moody's Ca · S&P CCC+ · Fitch D |
| Benchmark USD bond | UKRAINE 4.5 34 |
| Spread over Treasuries | 825bps |
| Yield to worst | 13.11% |
| Duration | 5.1y |
Pillar scores
| Pillar | Score (0-100) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal | 20.4 |
| External | 28.8 |
| Macro | 55.3 |
| Institutions | 12.5 |
The nine metrics behind the score
| Metric | Pillar | Raw value | Score | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account / GDP | External | -18.9% | 2.1 | IMF | 2026 |
| International reserves, months of imports | External | 5.0 mo | 48.9 | World Bank | 2024 |
| General government debt / GDP | Fiscal | 122.6% | 4.2 | IMF | 2026 |
| Interest expense / revenue | Fiscal | 11.8% | 54.2 | IMF | 2026 |
| Primary balance / GDP | Fiscal | -13.3% | 0.0 | IMF | 2026 |
| WGI institutional composite | Institutions | -0.66 | 12.5 | WGI composite | 2024 |
| Real GDP growth | Macro | 2.0% | 20.8 | IMF | 2026 |
| GDP per capita, USD | Macro | $6,980 | 37.5 | IMF | 2026 |
| Inflation stress | Macro | 6.1% | 94.5 | IMF | 2026 |
Score history
Applying the current methodology to historical sources, Ukraine moves from 33.9 in 2016 to 11.5 in 2026 (-22.4 points over ten years).
Default and restructuring registry
2024: external_restructuring (high) — IMF Ukraine country report.
Frequently asked questions
What is Ukraine's sovereign credit score?
Ukraine scores 11.5/100 on the BT Sovereign Fundamentals Score, ranking 48 of 51 sovereigns covered. The score is built from nine public IMF and World Bank metrics across fiscal, external, macro, and institutions pillars.
Which Ukraine USD bond does BondTerminal track?
UKRAINE 4.5 34 (ISIN XS2895056013), the near-5-year USD benchmark, currently 825 bps over Treasuries with a 13.11% yield to worst.
Is Ukraine trading wide or tight of its fundamentals?
Ukraine trades 201 bps wide of its fundamentals fit (fitted spread 624 bps).
Related
- All 51 sovereigns ranked on the Sovereign Signal hub.
- BT-SFS methodology paper — every metric, weight, and transformation, in public.
- Ukraine bond directory — every Ukraine USD bond BondTerminal tracks.
- Ukraine vs Argentina — fundamentals and spreads head to head.
- Turkiye — regional peer, BT-SFS 46.9 · 239 bps.
- Romania — regional peer, BT-SFS 52.8 · 139 bps.
- Hungary — regional peer, BT-SFS 55.5 · 67 bps.